Strictly a Buyer's Agent

National House Pricing Model Shows Prices Bottoming in Mid-2009

The Case-Schiller model measures the residential housing market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States using repeat sales of houses to measure market strength. Moodys.com and Fiserv Lending Solutions have used the Case-Schiller data to create two interesting scenarios for national housing prices. One shows that house prices will hit bottom and begin to climb again in mid-2009 under the most likely economic scenario. A more pessimistic scenario shows the turnaround delayed until 2010 if there is a severe recession or other economic shocks.

You can see the chart here. Remember, this is not reflective of Houston where prices have not suffered like many other locations.

http://www.economy.com/home/products/case_shiller_indexes.asp

Unsold Homes Elsewhere Also Hurt Houston

Although Houston's housing market is holding up much better than the rest of the US, the impact of the housing decline is being felt in a different way here - tranferees moving to Houston who cannot sell their homes in other cities and therefore cannot buy a home here.  Some may decide to move and rent, but more are deciding to forgo the transfer alltogether. This may lead to what experts fear will be a record-low rate of domestic migration in 2008. To read the entire New York Times article, click the link below.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/business/03labor.html?em&ex=1207454400&en=24bd9405313127dd&ei=5087%0A

Houston: The Next Great World City?

A recent article from The American - A Magazine of Ideas suggests that Houston may be positioned to emerge as the next great world city.  The author notes that due to recent trends in job growth and net migration rates, "Opportunity Cities" have arisen primarily in the southern US such as Atlanta, Dallas and Houston.  But of these, only Houston is uniquely positioned in the global economy due to its port, energy industry, and internationally-minded business-service firms.

Another important factor for Houston's emergence as the next great world city is its history of tolerance and immigration. Many come seeking opportunity and many find it.

Read the article here: http://american.com/archive/2008/march-april-magazine-contents/lone-star-rising

Don't be confused about the Energy Corridor . . .

Today's market condition update for the Energy Corridor shows the $500-$599K market to be "normal" for the first time in recent memory but this will likely not be the case for long. For the last several years this area (zip code 77079) has been one of the most difficult for buyers with housing inventories very low month after month. Why? There are millions of square feet of office space nearby that is home to companies such as BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Citgo and others. Their employees transfer into Houston from all over the world, resulting in a very active housing market and one that can be very difficult for buyers. The best thing to do is move into temporary housing for at least a few weeks, wait for new listings to come on the market and be the first to see them with your agent! With a little luck, you'll end up in an A property in the Energy Corridor.

On the Tipping Point?

For years now the market has strongly favored sellers in eight of the ten price ranges (and areas) I calculate market conditions for on Monday-Friday of each week. It seems now to be on the brink of change since today's update shows four price ranges ready to tip over into a "slightly strong" market of 8+ months of inventory:

http://www.westurealestate.com/marketWatchAllAreasSummary.htm#average

It may be that this increasing inventory will be absorbed as it has been in years past. The coming weeks will tell the tale.

Heights Area May Be Signaling Coming Weakness in 77008, 77009

Every Monday I update market conditions in the Heights area for zip codes 77008, 77009, and 77018. For the past few weeks the inventory of homes on the market has been creeping up slightly. Zip code 77009 has officially dropped out of the "seller's market" category it has held since I started making these calculations in 2004. Zip 77008 may do the same soon. Stay tuned.

FORBES: West U One of the Best Blue-Chip Real Estate Investments In US

Forbes has identified West University Place as Houston's blue-chip neighborhood where values are well established and have remained robust since 1990. Fifteen US metro areas were studied with other blue-chip areas noted such as Pacific Palisades in Los Angeles, University Park in Dallas, Lake Shore Drive in Chicago, and Fifth Avenue in New York, among others. For more information and methodology, follow this link..

Living in a City with NO ZONING

  Many people who move to Houston are shocked to hear that land use is determined at the neighborhood level, meaning there is no central zoning agency. And not only that, zoning has been put to a vote more than once and lost each time. I live in Montrose, which is a land-use nightmare (single-famly here, muli-family there, retail over there, etc,) but guess what? I can walk to three of the coolest coffee houses in the city in five minutes. So I like the mixed-up, eclectic nature of my neighborhood.

Developers have long had their way in Houston but now a very well-connnected neighborhood is up in arms about a towering high-rise planned for their area. Who can blame them? Their city council representative will introduce a new ordinance soon aimed at cutting back high-density residential development in areas that cannot withstand the traffic impact. I support the effort and hope they prevail. The developers have to be reined in somewhat. I love the business climate of Texas and lack of regulation, but a balance has to be struck for the preservation of a livable city.

The News is Bad . . . But Not Here

As far back as Fall 2005 the Wall Street Journal began to report that perhaps the housing market was peaking. I began searching for signs of it then in Houston and I'm still searching . . . Now the housing news elsewhere is quite bad, such as this article reporting that 10 US cities had a record drop in prices in November 2007.

It has not happened here and after compiling market conditions for ten price ranges in 19 popular zip codes five times per week since 2003 I can say things have pretty much remained the same. I noticed a slight upswing in inventory this week, but I think this is just a seasonal thing (time for new listings to come online) so the time to sort this all out will be after the end of the high season for buying and selling to see how much inventory is still out there unsold. I'll post again about this in the Fall. So far Houston has weathered the storm, or at least the areas of Houston that I work in.

Still Crazy About Old Sixth Ward

I spent more time showing buyers around Old Sixth Ward over the weekend and it was the first time they had heard of it. It's always interesting to see how people respond, since not all of the houses have been renovated and some areas are sort of seedy, but the charm and potential is there for anyone who looks carefully. The area is now "protected" historically, and I found this very cool video that was made of Sixth Ward homeowners before their neighborhood was granted protected status.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cig-JCOtXR8